The receptor story has real human evidence behind it. In 2000, Varani and colleagues gave 45 healthy volunteers caffeine after two weeks without it.1 At 400 mg a day for one week, nothing changed. At 400 mg a day for two weeks, or 600 mg a day, A2A receptors upregulated.
The catch: they measured blood platelets, not brain tissue. Platelets carry A2A receptors, so they're a convenient window. They aren't where caffeine's alertness effect happens.
When researchers looked at the brain directly, the receptor story got weaker. Holtzman's group gave rats caffeine in their drinking water until it no longer raised their activity at all.2 Their cerebral cortex showed no change in the number or affinity of adenosine receptors. Caffeine still blocked those receptors as well as it did in untreated rats. The authors concluded upregulation is not the mechanism of that tolerance.
A 2022 review of adenosine and sleep sums up the field.3 Some studies suggest A1 receptors increase with daily caffeine; others don't. An increase in A2A receptors, the authors write, "has not been observed." And in humans, the extent of tolerance itself is "still controversial and not clearly established."
So the honest summary: tolerance exists, receptor changes are one candidate explanation, and the brain-level evidence for it is mixed.